What factors drive and influence displacement and migration in Africa’s Sahel Region?

My name is Ansar, and I'm from Queen Margaret University. I'm now studying Psychology and Sociology. For as long as I can remember, I've been interested in migration issues, always trying to understand the reasons why people leave their homes, how to solve this problem, how to support them, and so on. I was drawn to this topic about the Sahel because I wanted to understand more about the scope of the issues in this area and to delve deeper into the subject.

This piece explores how climate-related issues, food insecurity, and armed conflicts affect the displacement and migration within the Sahel. The homepage picture is of the savannah in Northeastern Nigeria.

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Introduction

The objective of this blog is to investigate the factors that influence migration and displacement. The Sahel region is located in the north of West Africa and includes countries such as Senegal, the Gambia, Mauritania, Guinea, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, Cameroon, and Nigeria, and has significant economic development potential in northwest Africa (IFAD, 2025).

It is estimated that the Sahel is home to a youthful population; about 65% of the region's population is under 25 years of age. (IFAD, 2025). According to a few estimates, the Sahel region's population will exceed 500 million by 2050 (IFAD, 2025). The region is also rich in natural resources, including gold, oil, gas, and phosphates (IFAD, 2025). Additionally, its sunny climate provides an ideal environment for renewable energy development (IFAD, 2025). These factors, when combined, should guarantee the region's economic growth, as it contains important resources, potential for a green economy, and a young, working-age population (IFAD, 2025).

However, the Sahel faces frequent challenges, including climate-related issues and armed conflict, despite its immense potential (European Commission, 2019). These factors, amongst others, are interconnected and contribute to high levels of cross-border displacement in precarious situations across the borders of Sahel states.

Climate Change

Climate change remains one of the Sahel's key challenges (Skretteberg, 2019). According to UN data, roughly 80% of agricultural land in the Sahel region is already affected by climate change (Skretteberg, 2019). In January 2019, climate experts presented their estimate for the Sahel at the World Economic Forum: in an area where the average temperature is 35 degrees Celsius, they predict that by 2050 it will increase by at least 3 degrees Celsius (Skretteberg, 2019). A rise in average temperatures and the impacts of prolonged extreme heat have wide-ranging, severe consequences.

In the Sahel region, one such consequence, which could have particularly complex effects, is the reduced possibility of cattle herding. (Skretteberg, 2019). In 2024, the Sahel experienced an average maximum temperature of 45 degrees Celsius and a minimum temperature of 32 degrees Celsius (WWA, 2024). As of 2019, the nomadic population numbers 50 million individuals (Skretteberg, 2019). The loss of grazing areas is limiting access to pasture, which, in turn, is creating violent disputes between local farmers and nomads in countries such as Nigeria, Mali, Chad, and other states in the region (Skretteberg, 2019). In the Sahel, approximately 50 million people, or 72% of the population, depend on livestock farming, with the sector accounting for approximately a quarter of total GDP in 3-4 countries (FAO, 2022). Previously, such disagreements were generally handled at the local level through discussions (Skretteberg, 2019). The situation is now so severe that it often leads to violence, resulting in thousands of deaths each year (Skretteberg, 2019). 

Additionally, extreme weather driven by climate change in the Sahel is destroying farmland and endangering food security due to prolonged rainfall and more frequent droughts and floods (British Red Cross, 2025). This crisis disproportionately harms women and displaced communities by disrupting education and raising health hazards (British Red Cross, 2025). For instance, the most recent flood in Chad forced the evacuation of millions of people from their homes due to life-threatening conditions, affecting an estimated 1.9 million people (British Red Cross, 2025). In the context of education, individuals must permanently discontinue their studies until they can find secure conditions to resume them. (British Red Cross, 2025).

Mauritania is also a major route for people seeking safety in Europe, increasing pressure on its limited resources (British Red Cross, 2025). This rise in migration has also led to growth in deaths; 5,000 individuals lost their lives during sea crossings between January and June 2024 (British Red Cross, 2025).

Food and Security

While local communities exhibit extraordinary resilience, urgent international support is essential to help them adjust to these climatic shocks and ensure a stable future (British Red Cross, 2025). Infrequent rainfall and prolonged dry spells have damaged local crops and livestock, causing widespread and rising food insecurity in the Sahel (British Red Cross, 2025). In Mauritania, local production fulfills only 30% of national needs, and only 0.5% of land can be used for farming (British Red Cross, 2025). This systemic failure has caused a hunger crisis, affecting children the hardest (British Red Cross, 2025). Conflict and climate shocks worsen these vulnerabilities, locking the region's most vulnerable communities in hunger and instability (British Red Cross, 2025).

The Sahel is currently in the grip of a "chronic hunger emergency," which has profoundly transformed the character of population displacement (UN, 2025). The number of people reporting hunger as the primary reason for migrating has increased in recent years, and food insecurity has become a key cause of migration for more than 32 million people in need of urgent humanitarian assistance (UN, 2025). This issue is exacerbated by a vicious cycle: ongoing displacement, weather changes, and constant armed conflicts (UN, 2025).

Armed Conflict

The number of internally displaced persons is 2,352,945, and the number of refugees and asylum seekers is 3,162,332, according to the R4Sahel 2025. These figures intimately relate to armed conflicts in the Sahel region.

For example, Mauritania currently hosts over 160,000 refugees from Mali; in 2024, approximately 112,000 Malians crossed the Mauritanian border (UNHCR). At the same time, Mali hosts approximately 260,000 refugees from Burkina Faso (UNHCR, 2026). The Sahel is frequently impacted by armed conflicts that are committed by armed groups such as al Qaeda, IS West African Province (ISWAP), etc, as well as by repeated coups d'état (Skretteberg, 2019). These events erode civilian security and, in many cases, lead to forced displacement. 

An example of a situation where groups influence famine occurred in September 2025. The al-Qaeda-affiliated group Jama'a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) resolved to attack tankers and kidnap drivers on the highways connecting landlocked Mali to its neighbours (Senegal and the Ivory Coast) (Ewokor, 2025). They effectively removed the nation's "lifeblood" (Ewokor, 2025). It is reported that these actions were in response to the Malian military junta's autocratic prohibition of the sale of fuel in jerry cans, which is the primary method of reselling fuel outside of major cities. It was also the impetus for this decision, which was intended to undermine jihadist movements in rural areas (Ewokor, 2025). Consequently, the blockade led to a threefold increase in food prices and disruptions in food supplies (Ewokor, 2025). Ultimately, these factors not only drive new waves of displacement and migration but also erode social cohesion, making the region's path to stability increasingly difficult (UN, 2025).

Conclusion

The developing humanitarian crisis is undermining the Sahel's great economic development potential from a burgeoning youth population and abundant natural resources. Climate change, food insecurity, and rising conflict have created a volatile environment in which survival often demands refuge. Traditional resource conflict resolution methods have turned into violence as agricultural land disappears and temperatures rise, further displacing millions. The 32 million people in urgent need of relief require more than emergency aid, especially given that the Sahel region continues to face challenges, including the fuel blockade in Mali. A concerted international effort is needed to address the core causes of instability and strengthen local communities. Without action, the region's great future remains mired in starvation and displacement.