A Geopolitical Analysis of Displacement and Conflict in Yemen

My name is Cole Himali. I am a student at University of St Andrews studying Anthropology and Geography and hoping to pursue a career in geopolitics. I have a special interest in West Asia and North Africa, particularly how decolonisation has shaped the current geopolitical world order.

Through this article, I will give an overview on the displacement context of the on-going war in Yemen. Then I will give the historical context of developments in Yemen to paint a fuller picture of how and why the current conflict has occurred. At the end, I will circle back to the human impact of the conflict to show how this is impacting people practically within Yemen.

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On August 6, 2026, a new chapter in the 12-year long Yemeni civil war, between the internationally recognised government and the Houthis, is contributing to widespread displacement, an exacerbated humanitarian crisis, and critical implications for geopolitics. Yemen is located on the southwest corner of the Arabian peninsula bordering Saudi Arabia to the north and Oman to the east. Yemen also borders the Red Sea, a crucial trading and naval route connecting the Mediterranean to South-West Asia and North Africa (SWANA) region. In this article, we will discuss the context of displacement in Yemen and touch on the wider humanitarian crisis in the country before delving into the geopolitical climate that these issues are taking place in.

Displacement Context

Even before the conflict in Yemen was rekindled, the country has held many internally displaced people and migrants due to a variety of factors. One such factor is climate induced disasters such as floods within the country, leading to internal displacement, or movement of people away from their homes within their home country due to conflict, violence, human rights abuses or disasters. Additionally, people from Somalia and Ethiopia also seek refuge in Yemen as it is the only country on the Arabian Peninsula signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention and 1967 Protocol. Because of this, Yemen is a common transit point for those seeking asylum. Due to these factors, as of April 2026, Yemen holds 5.2 million internally displaced persons, 330 thousand migrants, and 63 thousand refugees and asylum seekers.

By the middle of this September, the UN reported that another 200,000 people have been displaced so far in the conflict that restarted this past August. In combination with the millions of Yemenis already displaced due to economic and climatic issues, this new wave of displacement has caused over 3,000 to seek refuge in Djibouti, a small country on the Northeast coast of Africa situated in between Eritrea, Somalia, and Ethiopia, by boat. Of those traveling to Djibouti, 60% are women, children, and elderly. In addition, others make journeys to countries including Greece, the UK, or other neighboring countries in order to apply for asylum.

Prior to Yemen’s civil war beginning in 2014, the number of the country's internally displaced people due to conflict and violence was 334,000. But, after the civil war began, numbers skyrocketed to 2.5 million internally displaced people in 2015. This number dropped to 2 million in 2016 but has been steadily climbing ever since. In 2020, another 223,000 people were internally displaced due to flooding whilst in 2024, almost 500,000 people were displaced within Yemen by flooding and storms, highlighting the recurrent impacts of climate-linked crises.

Humanitarian Crisis

The preexisting internal and external migration issues are amplified by the widespread humanitarian crisis in the country as need increases at a faster rate than aid is given. In a recent article published by UNHCR, the organisation estimates that Yemen needs at least $14 million to meet the immediate needs of people displaced in the country. According to some estimates, 22.3 million people (more than half of the country’s population) will need humanitarian aid before the conflict is over due to loss of access to shelter, water, and other essential services. Damage to civilian infrastructure has occurred as a consequence of actions from both sides of the conflict. According to a recent UN article, out of 5000 health delivery units surveyed in the country only 60 were fully functioning. Such infrastructural damage leaves those located across the country without telecommunication and internet, preventing needs assessments, medical referral services, and humanitarian responses. In discussion with Yemen’s representative from the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) a Yemeni woman recounted her story of childbirth while displaced. Without access to medical facilities, the mother was forced to give birth in the open without any medical care or assistance. Unfortunately, due to the lack of humanitarian support and resources within Yemen currently this is likely a common occurrence.

Additionally, the humanitarian aid that Yemen is supposed to receive often does not arrive. The humanitarian assistance the UN has attempted to provide has not been delivered due to humanitarian responders being held captive by Yemeni opposition parties. Additionally, there is a geographical dimension to the lack of access, especially now in the current stage of the conflict. As most of the fighting in Yemen occurs on the west coast of the country, those living there or seeking refuge there have less access to humanitarian assistance.

To make matters worse, prior to the conflict’s resumption, more than 80% of the population lived in poverty with these numbers now rising. Due to the fall of currency the majority of those living in Yemen can no longer afford necessities. Further, 18 million people lack access to an adequate food supply, six million of whom are in a condition bordering famine.

Geopolitical Background

The current war in Yemen belongs to a longer chain of events. In 1967, Yemen was freed from British colonial occupation. After this, there were disputes between the Northern and Southern territories of Yemen over their inhabitants' sovereignty. Although in the 1990s North and South Yemen was reunified under the presidency of Ali Abdullah Saleh, who had been president of North Yemen since 1978, the tension between Northern and Southern Yemen has never fully been resolved. As Saleh gained more power over all of Yemen, the Houthis also began to gain power with the implicit support of the president. The Houthis belong to a sect of Shia Islam followed by many in Yemen and formed a rebel group to gain control over Northern Yemen in the late 1990s. So, when in 2000 Saleh reached a formal border agreement with Saudi Arabia concerning their shared border, tensions rose between the president and Houthis. These tensions came to a head in 2004 when the Houthis engaged in an armed rebellion against the Yemeni government.

Clashes between Saleh’s government and Houthis continued until a political movement known as the Arab Spring spread across WANA. The Arab Spring began in December of 2010 when a Tunisian man set himself on fire to protest police violence. His act of protest went viral across the world and sparked widespread protests across the WANA against authoritarianism. The Arab Spring reached Yemen in 2011 and a period of acute political instability ensued. Following major protests throughout 2011, former President Ali Abdullah Saleh resigned from his position. After resigning, Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi, Saleh’s deputy, ran unopposed and won Yemen’s presidential election in 2012. Hadi remained the president of Yemen until resigning in 2022 and giving power to an 8 man Presidential Leadership Council backed by Saudi Arabia. 

But, to understand the most recent events in Yemen’s conflict, let’s look back to 2014. In September of 2014 the internationally recognised government backed by the Gulf Co-operation Council in Sanaa underwent an insurgency by the Houthis who want to govern all of Yemen. 

The Houthi armed group claimed autonomy of a region in the North of Yemen named Saada, and then took over its capital Sanaa. This conflict was emblematic of the wider Sunni-Shia Muslim divide in the so-called ‘Middle East’. Conflicts between the different Islamic sects are widespread across the world, but are especially pronounced in this region. This divide was further exacerbated as Houthis, a Shia group, continuously received backing from the Iranian government (a majority Shia country) while the internationally recognised government of Yemen received support from Saudi Arabia (a majority Sunni country). 

Despite the seemingly daunting task of reaching an agreement, in 2022 Yemen’s internationally recognised government and the Houthis agreed to a UN brokered truce. This past July Houthi combatants struck Saudi Arabia’s Abha Airport signaling a possible re-ignition of fighting in Yemen. The Houthis cite a strike on Sanaa’s international airport as the reason for targeting Saudi Arabia’s Abha airport. But, despite the Houthis' claims that Saudi Arabia struck Sanaa’s airport, Yemen’s internationally recognised government claims the strike as their own.

After striking Saudi Arabia, in August 2026, Houthis began attacking military bases in Hadramout and Marib, areas of central Yemen, indicating the effort to recommence fighting. Through these offensives at least 30 soldiers have been injured with estimates of between another 15-30 killed. In an article by Ahmad Algohbary, a freelance Yemeni journalist, he reports that Yemeni soldiers, despite having fought the Houthis before, felt that this new chapter in the conflict indicated that “this time was not like the previous times”.

Human Impact

The chosen locations of the offensives undertaken by Houthi fighters this August is noteworthy. Marib, the location of many offensives up until this point, carries significant political and economic importance. Marib contains many oil and gas hotspots for the country. As the Houthis deliberately target Marib as an area of strategic interest, not only are they destroying their opposition but also one of the country’s main sources of income. In addition to targeting the oil and gas industry, the Houthis deliberately target residential neighborhoods and displacement camps which is in direct violation of the Geneva Convention. Due to the deliberate targeting of civilian neighborhoods at least 162 households have been displaced thus far in the conflict. Marib hosts the largest number of displaced families in the country and with 59 shelters already damaged the current displacement emergency will only be exacerbated. In Algohbary’s article, he references a conversation with a family living in the areas which have undergone airstrikes and says that families are “sometimes woken up at night by the shelling” causing “the children to wake up terrified”. 

Throughout the west coast of Yemen the human impacts of the war have been the most pronounced. The conflict in Marib has also damaged water storage facilities and placed more pressure on the health facilities which are already in a precarious state. In Ta’iz city the impacts have yet to be reported but in the wider Ta’iz area there has been a suspension of operations at Al Makha Port due to casualties reported of people working on vessels in the strait leading to the port. Because of this, there will be wider impacts on the commercial sphere and limited movement of goods. 

The reignition of the civil war in Yemen has exacerbated an already precarious situation for the people displaced within the country. The political violence experienced by those living in Yemen is compounded with other experiences of humanitarian and climate crises. Prior to the escalation of conflict this past August, Yemen already had almost half of the population displaced. This displacement occurred due to the intersection of climatic crises and a lack of humanitarian aid. Climatic issues such as flooding caused many Yemenis to flee their homes and seek refuge in other places in the country. In addition to this, a lack of humanitarian aid compounded the issues experienced by those displaced as they were unable to receive support to rebuild their lives. Now, because of fighting recommencing in Yemen, these issues are only going to become worse.  

Although there is little direct impact in bringing an end to the conflict that can be made by many of us as individuals, supporting and learning about organisations working on humanitarian assistance, livelihoods, or peacebuilding, and staying educated to keep a public and political spotlight on global crises are some ways to make a personal impact in all of our lives. The author also encourages you  to turn to reputable news outlets such as AlJazeera and sources directly from Yemeni journalists such as Ahmad Algobohary who allow us to see perspectives that we may otherwise not see in many Western news channels.